Vegas bookmaker reevaluates UK/U of L football

first_imgBack in late September, the Kentucky and Louisville football teams seemed to be trending in opposite directions.The Wildcats had nearly toppled Florida on the road, then earned their first Southeastern Conference win in two seasons to improve to 3-1. We didn’t know then that the Gators were actually pretty awful.U of L, meanwhile, was coming off a loss to unranked Virginia and a discouraging close-call at home against lowly Wake Forest.So I called Aaron Kessler, sportsbook supervisor at the Golden Nugget Casino in Las Vegas, and asked him to make a hypothetical betting line for the UK/U of L game, assuming it was played that day.Adam Himmelsbach: Rethinking the UK-UofL in NovemberKessler said in the preseason, his casino had set U of L as a 15-point favorite. But after watching the season’s first month, he said he would adjust that to favor UK by two points. That was surprising, and it created quite a stir.Since then, of course, UK’s regression has been rapid. The Wildcats have now lost five games in a row, and they have been stomped pretty thoroughly in most of them. U of L, on the other hand, has shown that it can compete with teams like Florida State and Clemson. And, importantly, wide receiver DeVante Parker has returned.Play VideoPlayMuteCurrent Time 0:00/Duration Time 0:00Loaded: 0%0:00Progress: 0%0:00 Progress: 0%Stream TypeLIVERemaining Time -0:00 Playback Rate1ChaptersChaptersdescriptions off, selectedDescriptionssubtitles off, selectedSubtitlescaptions settings, opens captions settings dialogcaptions off, selectedCaptionsAudio TrackFullscreenThis is a modal window. The Video Cloud video was not found. Error Code: VIDEO_CLOUD_ERR_VIDEO_NOT_FOUND Session ID: 2020-09-17:8a7e9ad1f031f2a396295646 Player ID: videojs-brightcove-player-559182-3895753560001 OK Close Modal DialogCaption Settings DialogBeginning of dialog window. Escape will cancel and close the window.TextColorWhiteBlackRedGreenBlueYellowMagentaCyanTransparencyOpaqueSemi-TransparentBackgroundColorBlackWhiteRedGreenBlueYellowMagentaCyanTransparencyOpaqueSemi-TransparentTransparentWindowColorBlackWhiteRedGreenBlueYellowMagentaCyanTransparencyTransparentSemi-TransparentOpaqueFont Size50%75%100%125%150%175%200%300%400%Text Edge StyleNoneRaisedDepressedUniformDropshadowFont FamilyProportional Sans-SerifMonospace Sans-SerifProportional SerifMonospace SerifCasualScriptSmall CapsDefaultsDoneClose Modal DialogThis is a modal window. This modal can be closed by pressing the Escape key or activating the close button.So with the UK/U of L game now less than two weeks away, I called the Golden Nugget once more to get an updated idea on their projections. To say there has been a reversal would be putting it mildly. Tony Miller, the casino’s sportsbook director, said he would likely install Louisville as a 13 or 14-point favorite.“You look at the way Kentucky started,” Miller said, “but they’ve just come unraveled since then.”Miller said that three weeks ago, he probably would have made U of L a nine-point favorite. It’s worth pointing out that with betting lines, sportsbooks are not trying to predict the result as much as they are trying to predict how bettors will act.Still no kickoff time, TV details for the Kentucky-Louisville football gameLouisville’s loss to Florida State on national television earned the Cardinals some equity, as did their convincing win against bowl-eligible Boston College. Kentucky has looked more like the Kentucky we once knew, reminding everyone that rebuilds do not, in fact, happen overnight.“The public is going to bet Louisville, just because they know they’re the better team,” Miller said. “Right now, 14 is going to be a key number.”Adam Himmelsbach can be reached at 502-582-4372 by email [email protected] and on Twitter @adamhimmelsbachlast_img